Nitrogen oxides (NOx) and ammonia (NH3) contribute substantially to current global fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution. Their future role remains unclear and is complicated by interactions with background emissions. Here, we show that under climate mitigation scenarios, by 2050, a hypothetical phaseout of anthropogenic NH3 emissions would reduce PM2.5 by 20%–60% locally and be more effective than phasing out NOx. Reducing NH3 by 25%, instead, would be less effective than 25% NOx reduction for many regions. Future reductions of NOx and sulfuric dioxides from clean energy transitions would shift the nonlinear chemical regime of secondary inorganic aerosol formation toward NH3 saturation. The later NH3 controls are installed, the deeper the required reductions will be to be effective, although for many regions such levels are still within technical feasibility, while NOx controls will always remain effective. Nitrogen reductions remain useful for achieving the World Health Organization guideline target for PM2.5, and NH3 controls need to happen sooner rather than later.

Although reactive nitrogen (Nr) emissions from food and energy production contribute to multi-dimensional environmental damages, integrated management of Nr is still lacking owing to unclear future mitigation potentials and benefits. Here, we find that by 2050, high-ambition compared to low-ambition N interventions reduce global ammonia and nitrogen oxide emissions by 21 and 22 TgN/a, respectively, equivalent to 40 and 52% of their 2015 levels. This would mitigate population-weighted PM2.5 by 6 g/m3 and avoid premature deaths by 817 k (16%), mitigate ozone by 4 ppbv, avoid premature deaths by 252k (34%) and crop yield losses by 122 million tons (4.3%), and decrease terrestrial ecosystem areas exceeding critical load by 420 Mha (69%). Without nitrogen interventions, most environmental damages examined will deteriorate between 2015 and 2050; Africa and Asia are the most vulnerable but also benefit the most from interventions. Nitrogen interventions support sustainable development goals related to air, health, and ecosystems.

Secondary inorganic aerosols play an important role in air pollution and climate change, and their formation modulates the atmospheric deposition of reactive nitrogen (including oxidized and reduced nitrogen), thus impacting the nitrogen cycle. Large-scale and long-term analyses of secondary inorganic aerosol formation based on model simulations have substantial uncertainties. Here we improve constraints on secondary inorganic aerosol formation using decade-long in situ observations of aerosol composition and gaseous precursors from multiple monitoring networks across the United States. We reveal a shift in the secondary inorganic aerosol formation regime in the rural United States between 2011 and 2020, making rural areas less sensitive to changes in ammonia concentrations and shortening the effective atmospheric lifetime of reduced forms of reactive nitrogen. This leads to potential increases in reactive nitrogen deposition near ammonia emission hotspots, with ecosystem impacts warranting further investigation. Ammonia (NH3), a critical but not directly regulated precursor of fine particulate matter in the United States, has been increasingly scrutinized to improve air quality. Our findings, however, show that controlling NH3 became significantly less effective for mitigating fine particulate matter in the rural United States. We highlight the need for more collocated aerosol and precursor observations for better characterization of secondary inorganic aerosols formation in urban areas.

Ammonia (NH3) is critical to the nitrogen cycle and PM2.5 formation, yet a great deal of uncertainty exists in its urban emission quantifications. Model-underestimated NH3 concentrations have been reported for cities, yet few studies have provided an explanation. Here, we explore reasons for severe WRF-Chem model underestimations of NH3 concentrations in Beijing in August 2018, including simulated gas-particle partitioning, meteorology, regional transport, and emissions, using spatially refined (3 km resolution) NH3 emission estimates in the agricultural sector for Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and in the traffic sector for Beijing. We find that simulated NH3 concentrations are significantly lower than ground-based and satellite observations during August in Beijing, while wintertime underestimations are much more moderate. Further analyses and sensitivity experiments show that such discrepancies cannot be attributed to factors other than biases in NH3 emissions. Using site measurements as constraints, we estimate that both agricultural and non-agricultural NH3 emission totals in Beijing shall increase by ∼5 times to match the observations. Future research should be performed to allocate underestimations to urban fertilizer, power, traffic, or residential sources. Dense and regular urban NH3 observations are necessary to constrain and validate bottom-up inventories and NHx simulation.

Growing population and consumption pose unprecedented demands on food production. However, ammonia emissions mainly from food systems increase oceanic nitrogen deposition contributing to eutrophication. Here, we developed a long-term oceanic nitrogen deposition dataset (1970 to 2018) with updated ammonia emissions from food systems, evaluated the impact of ammonia emissions on oceanic nitrogen deposition patterns, and discussed the potential impact of nitrogen fertilizer overuse. Based on the chemical transport modeling approach, oceanic ammonia-related nitrogen deposition increased by 89% globally between 1970 and 2018, and now, it exceeds oxidized nitrogen deposition by over 20% in coastal regions including China Sea, India Coastal, and Northeastern Atlantic Shelves. Approximately 38% of agricultural nitrogen fertilizer was excessive, which corresponds to 15% of global oceanic ammonia-related nitrogen deposition. Policymakers and water quality managers need to pay increasingly more attention to ammonia associated with food production if the goal of reducing coastal nitrogen pollution is to be achieved for Sustainable Development Goals.

Excess reactive nitrogen (Nr), including nitrogen oxides (NOx) and ammonia (NH3), contributes strongly to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air pollution in Europe, posing challenges to public health. Designing cost-effective Nr control roadmaps for PM2.5 mitigation requires considering both mitigation efficiencies and implementation costs. Here we identify optimal Nr control pathways for Europe by integrating emission estimations, air quality modeling, exposure-mortality modeling, Nr control experiments and cost data. We find that phasing out Nr emissions would reduce PM2.5 by 2.3 ± 1.2 μg·m−3 in Europe, helping many locations achieve the World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines and reducing PM2.5-related premature deaths by almost 100 thousand in 2015. Low-ambition NH3 controls have similar PM2.5 mitigation efficiencies as NOx in Eastern Europe, but are less effective in Western Europe until reductions exceed 40%. The efficiency for NH3 controls increases at high-ambition reductions while NOx slightly decreases. When costs are considered, strategies for both regions uniformly shift in favor of NH3 controls, as NH3 controls up to 50% remain 5-11 times more cost-effective than NOx per unit PM2.5 reduction, emphasizing the priority of NH3 control policies for Europe.

Global food loss and waste (FLW) undermines the resilience and sustainability of food systems and is closely tied to the United Nation’s Sustainable Development Goals on climate, resource use and food security. Here we reveal strong yet under-discussed interconnections between FLW and two other Sustainable Development Goals of Human Health and Life on Land via the nitrogen cycle. We find that eliminating global FLW in 2015 would have reduced anthropogenic NH3 emissions associated with food production by 11.4 Tg (16%), decreased local PM2.5 concentrations by up to 5 μg m−3 and PM2.5-related years of life lost by 1.5 million years, and mitigated nitrogen critical load exceedances in global biodiversity hotspots by up to 19%. Halving FLW in 2030 will reduce years of life lost by 0.5–0.8 million years and nitrogen deposition by 4.7–6.0 Tg N per year (4%) (range for socioeconomic pathways). Complementary to near-term NH3 mitigation potential via technological measures, our study emphasizes incentivizing FLW reduction efforts from air quality and ecosystem health perspectives.

Global gains in food production over the past decades have been associated with substantial agricultural nitrogen overuse and ammonia emissions, which have caused excessive nitrogen deposition and subsequent damage to the ecosystem health. However, it is unclear which crops or animals have high ammonia emission potential, how these emissions affect the temporal and spatial patterns of nitrogen deposition, and where to target future abatement. Here, we develop a long-term agricultural ammonia emission dataset in nearly recent four decades (1980–2018) and link it with a chemical transport model for an integrated assessment of global nitrogen deposition patterns. We found global agricultural ammonia emissions increased by 78% from 1980 and 2018, in which cropland ammonia emissions increased by 128%, and livestock ammonia emissions increased by 45%. Our analyses demonstrated that three crops (wheat, maize, and rice) and four animals (cattle, chicken, goats, and pigs) accounted for over 70% total ammonia emissions. Global reduced nitrogen deposition increased by 72% between 1980 and 2018 and would account for a larger part of total nitrogen deposition due to the lack of ammonia regulations. Three countries (China, India, and the United States) accounted for 47% of global ammonia emissions, and had substantial nitrogen fertilizer overuse. Nitrogen deposition caused by nitrogen overuse accounted for 10 to 20% of total nitrogen deposition in hotspot regions including China, India, and the United States. Future progress toward reducing nitrogen deposition will be increasingly difficult without reducing agricultural ammonia emissions.

Dietary shifts from staples toward meats, fruits, and vegetables increase environmental impacts. Excessive red meat intake and micro-nutrient deficiencies also raise health concerns. Previous research examined environmental and health consequences of alternative diets but overlooked impacts on air pollution and land use change. Here we examine implications of four potential Chinese dietary shifts on ammonia and particulate matter (PM2.5) air pollution, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, carbon storage loss associated with land-use change, water use, and human health. We show that a diet that replaces red meat with soy benefits the environment and avoids 57,000 PM2.5-related premature deaths annually. Dietary health benefits, however, appear larger with adoption of the Chinese Dietary Guideline (CDG) and EAT-Lancet diets, which prevent over one million premature deaths annually. However, both diets increase water use and GHGs. CDG also increases land use change, but EAT-Lancet reduces it by cutting dairy and red meat. Complex benefits and trade-offs of dietary shifts emphasize the need for further improvements in agricultural management to enable larger health-environment co-benefits.

Ammonia (NH3) emissions, mainly from agricultural sources, generate substantial health damage due to the adverse effects on air quality. NH3 emission reduction strategies are still far from being effective. In particular, a growing trade network in this era of globalization offers untapped emission mitigation potential that has been overlooked. Here we show that about one-fourth of global agricultural NH3 emissions in 2012 are trade-related. Globally they induce 61 thousand PM2.5-related premature mortalities, with 25 thousand deaths associated with crop cultivation and 36 thousand deaths with livestock production. The trade-related health damage network is regionally integrated and can be characterized by three trading communities. Thus, effective cooperation within trade-dependent communities will achieve considerable NH3 emission reductions allowed by technological advancements and trade structure adjustments. Identification of regional communities from network analysis offers a new perspective on addressing NH3 emissions and is also applicable to agricultural greenhouse gas emissions mitigation.

Emissions of reactive nitrogen as ammonia (NH3) and nitrogen oxides (NOx), together with sulfur dioxide (SO2), contribute to formation of secondary PM2.5 in the atmosphere. Satellite observations of atmospheric NH3, NO2, and SO2 levels since the 2000s provide valuable information to constrain the spatial and temporal variability of their emissions. Here we present a bottom-up Chinese NH3 emission inventory combined with top-down estimates of Chinese NOx and SO2 emissions using ozone monitoring instrument satellite observations, aiming to quantify the interannual variations of reactive nitrogen emissions in China and their contributions to PM2.5 air pollution over 2005–2015. We find small interannual changes in the total Chinese anthropogenic NH3 emissions during 2005–2016 (12.0–13.3 Tg with over 85% from agricultural sources), but large interannual change in top-down Chinese NOx and SO2 emissions. Chinese NOx emissions peaked around 2011 and declined by 22% during 2011–2015, and Chinese SO2 emissions declined by 55% in 2015 relative to that in 2007. Using the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model simulations, we find that rising atmospheric NH3 levels in eastern China since 2011 as observed by infrared atmospheric sounding interferometer and atmospheric infrared sounder satellites are mainly driven by rapid reductions in SO2 emissions. The 2011–2015 Chinese NOx emission reductions have decreased regional annual mean PM2.5 by 2.3–3.8 μg m−3. Interannual PM2.5 changes due to NH3 emission changes are relatively small, but further control of agricultural NH3 emissions can be effective for PM2.5 pollution mitigation in eastern China.

China purchases around 66% of the soy that is traded internationally. This strains the global food supply and contributes to greenhouse gas emissions. Here we show that optimizing the maize and soy production of China can improve its self-sufficiency and also alleviate adverse environmental effects. Using data from more than 1,800 counties in China, we estimate the area-weighted yield potential (Ypot) and yield gaps, setting the attainable yield (Yatt) as the yield achieved by the top 10% of producers per county. We also map out county-by-county acreage allocation and calculate the attainable production capacity according to a set of sustainability criteria. Under optimized conditions, China would be able to produce all the maize and 45% of the soy needed by 2035—while reducing nitrogen fertilizer use by 26%, reactive nitrogen loss by 28% and greenhouse gas emissions by 19%—with the same acreage as 2017, our reference year.

China's gains in food production over the past four decades have been associated with substantial agricultural nitrogen losses, which contribute to air and water pollution, greenhouse gas emissions and damage to human health. Here, we explore the potential to improve agricultural production practices that simultaneously increase yields while addressing these environmental challenges. We link agronomic research with air quality modelling for an integrated assessment of four improved nitrogen management strategies: improved farm management practices with nitrogen use reductions; machine deep placement of fertilizer; enhanced-efficiency fertilizer use; and improved manure management. We find that simultaneous implementation of the four strategies provides the largest benefits, which include: reductions in PM2.5 concentrations and associated premature deaths; increases in grain yields and grain nitrogen use efficiency; reductions in NO3− leaching and runoff and greenhouse gas emissions. Total benefits of US$30 billion per year exceed the US$18 billion per year in costs. Our findings indicate that policies that improve farmers’ agricultural nitrogen management in China will improve both food security and public health while addressing multiple environmental challenges. Similar increases in attention on agricultural policy around the world are likely to provide large benefits in food security, environmental integrity and public health.

Ground-level ozone (O3), harmful to most living things, is produced from both domestic and foreign emissions of anthropogenic precursors. Previous estimates of the linkage from distant sources rely on the sensitivity approach (i.e., modeling the change of ozone concentrations that result from modifying precursor emissions) as well as the tagging approach (i.e., tracking ozone produced from specific O3 precursors emitted from one region). Here, for the first time, we tag all O3 precursors (i.e., nitrogen oxides (NOx), carbon monoxide (CO), and volatile organic compounds (VOCs)) from East Asia and explicitly track their physicochemical evolution without perturbing the nonlinear O3 chemistry. We show that, even in summer, when intercontinental influence on ozone has typically been found to be weakest, nearly 3 parts per billion by volume (ppbv) seasonal average surface O3 over North America can be attributed to East Asian anthropogenic emissions, compared with 0.7 ppbv using the sensitivity approach and 0.5 ppbv by tagging reactive nitrogen oxides. Considering the acute effects of O3 exposure, approximately 670 cardiovascular and 300 respiratory premature mortalities within North America could be attributed to East Asia. CO and longer-lived VOCs, largely overlooked in previous studies, extend the influence of regional ozone precursors emissions and, thus, greatly enhance O3 attribution to source region.